sgsgd
Thursday, March 19, 2015
19th March- Actual
Entry Date :- March 19th. [ what actually happened.]
Opening Price :- 1.0820
High of the day :- 1.0919
Low of the day :- 1.0612
Close of the day :-
Max Pip Movement :- 307 pips
This was the highest retrace ever since the downfall started from the price of 1.3993 on the pair. The upward movement after the FOMC statement broke through all the stop loss levels pushing the pair higher. All those who had long positions at the top closed their trades to enter a short position. The longs from the lower levels took profit and all these combined together to have a cascading effect on the pair.
Since both the fundamentals and the sentiment support a weaker Euro, the down trend is intact. However it will be more sensitive to US data as rate hikes depend on it.
Opening Price :- 1.0820
High of the day :- 1.0919
Low of the day :- 1.0612
Close of the day :-
Max Pip Movement :- 307 pips
This was the highest retrace ever since the downfall started from the price of 1.3993 on the pair. The upward movement after the FOMC statement broke through all the stop loss levels pushing the pair higher. All those who had long positions at the top closed their trades to enter a short position. The longs from the lower levels took profit and all these combined together to have a cascading effect on the pair.
Since both the fundamentals and the sentiment support a weaker Euro, the down trend is intact. However it will be more sensitive to US data as rate hikes depend on it.
19th March - Expected
Entry Date :- March 19th. [What I expect to happen, and then later in the day compare to what I thought to what actually happened.]
Fundamental Analysis:- The fundamentals still point to a lower EURO. The Fed's have not taken rate hike off the table. But Instead of 4 hikes this year, there will be only two. Rate hike in June is highly unlikely. So expected rate hike will be in September.
Even in the short term any up rally is considered a good option to short so it is highly unlikely that the pair will attain levels of 1.1180 (at least not without stronger date to support so).
Sentiment Analysis :- Pull back was expected due to oversold status and exaggerated down rally.
Daily Opening Price :- 1.1820
High till now :- 1.1919
Yesterday's high :- 1.1041
Yesterdays low :- 1.0580
Fibonacci Levels from 1.1041 to 1.0580 :-
Retracement :-
23.6% :- 1.0932
38.2% :- 1.0865
50% :- 1.0811
61.8% :- 1.0756
76.4% :- 1.0689
Extensions :-
61.8% :- 1.1326
100% :- 1.1502
Pivot Levels :- 1.0881 (H) ; 1.0874 (4H) : 1.0823 (D)
Open orders / Stop Loss / Take Profit :- Massive pending orders at 1.0800
Open Positions :- Massive long from 1.0600 0 1.0650 area. Also massive short positions from 1.0500-1.0680 area.
Since there are no significant stop loss in the vicinity of 1.0800 - 1.0950 area , The price should move lower during the day.
Trade ideas :- Sell Limit :- 1.0930, 1.0950, 1.1040 stops above 1.1120 Take Profit 1.0750
Since there are no significant data in the coming dates that might lead to major buy of the EURO, I expect the trading range for the week to be 1.1180 - 1.0680
Fundamental Analysis:- The fundamentals still point to a lower EURO. The Fed's have not taken rate hike off the table. But Instead of 4 hikes this year, there will be only two. Rate hike in June is highly unlikely. So expected rate hike will be in September.
Even in the short term any up rally is considered a good option to short so it is highly unlikely that the pair will attain levels of 1.1180 (at least not without stronger date to support so).
Sentiment Analysis :- Pull back was expected due to oversold status and exaggerated down rally.
Daily Opening Price :- 1.1820
High till now :- 1.1919
Yesterday's high :- 1.1041
Yesterdays low :- 1.0580
Fibonacci Levels from 1.1041 to 1.0580 :-
Retracement :-
23.6% :- 1.0932
38.2% :- 1.0865
50% :- 1.0811
61.8% :- 1.0756
76.4% :- 1.0689
Extensions :-
61.8% :- 1.1326
100% :- 1.1502
Pivot Levels :- 1.0881 (H) ; 1.0874 (4H) : 1.0823 (D)
Open orders / Stop Loss / Take Profit :- Massive pending orders at 1.0800
Open Positions :- Massive long from 1.0600 0 1.0650 area. Also massive short positions from 1.0500-1.0680 area.
Since there are no significant stop loss in the vicinity of 1.0800 - 1.0950 area , The price should move lower during the day.
Trade ideas :- Sell Limit :- 1.0930, 1.0950, 1.1040 stops above 1.1120 Take Profit 1.0750
Since there are no significant data in the coming dates that might lead to major buy of the EURO, I expect the trading range for the week to be 1.1180 - 1.0680
FOMC 18th March
Entry date - 18th March
Major Event of the day :- FOMC statement.
daily PIP Movement :- 464 Pips
The down rally that started on Feb 26th at 1.1380 and continued till 13th March upto lows of 1.0464 (almost a 916 pip rally). The reason for this rally was ECB's QE programme and the announcement of a rate hike in the near future owing to the strong NFP data and reduction in employemnt rate on the 6th of March.
The pair attained its expected lower limits at 1.0500 and waited for further indications to a downside. The next down side target lies at 1.02350 and then at 1.0000 .
(This can be considered a classic example of sell the rumour buy the facts).
THE FOMC watered down its expectations and will act accordingly to hike and is in no hurry which caused the market to rally up.
Technical analysis of the move :- The pair did attain the levels of the 50% retracement from the 1.1545 to 1.0464 at 1.1000. It went upto 1.1041.
The pair then receded below 1.0870 the 38.2% levels of the larger range.
Major Event of the day :- FOMC statement.
daily PIP Movement :- 464 Pips
The down rally that started on Feb 26th at 1.1380 and continued till 13th March upto lows of 1.0464 (almost a 916 pip rally). The reason for this rally was ECB's QE programme and the announcement of a rate hike in the near future owing to the strong NFP data and reduction in employemnt rate on the 6th of March.
The pair attained its expected lower limits at 1.0500 and waited for further indications to a downside. The next down side target lies at 1.02350 and then at 1.0000 .
(This can be considered a classic example of sell the rumour buy the facts).
THE FOMC watered down its expectations and will act accordingly to hike and is in no hurry which caused the market to rally up.
Technical analysis of the move :- The pair did attain the levels of the 50% retracement from the 1.1545 to 1.0464 at 1.1000. It went upto 1.1041.
The pair then receded below 1.0870 the 38.2% levels of the larger range.
Recap Of March
Recap of March:-
Opening Price: - 1.1160 on 2nd March
High of the month till date: - 1.1240 on 2nd March
Low of the month till date: - 1.0460 on 13th March
Fundamental Analysis:-
1. Strong NFP and decline in Unemployment rate, indicative of an imminent rate hikes.
2. Implementation of QE Program began.
3. FOMC on 18th proved to be dovish. The word patient was removed but other synonyms were substituted.
Sentiment Analysis:- Was bearish until the FOMC statement. With a probable rate hike off the table anywhere near June, the sentiment is mildly bullish because in the long run until the rate hike goes on and there isn’t much improvement in the German economy, EURO will continue to fall.
Bearish till 1.0235, 1.0000, and finally to 0.98 by the end of the year.
The upside is considered to be capped by 1.1535 (High of Last month) but a price above 1.1160 might turn the sentiment bullish to a price in the vicinity of 1.1750.
Opening Price: - 1.1160 on 2nd March
High of the month till date: - 1.1240 on 2nd March
Low of the month till date: - 1.0460 on 13th March
Fundamental Analysis:-
1. Strong NFP and decline in Unemployment rate, indicative of an imminent rate hikes.
2. Implementation of QE Program began.
3. FOMC on 18th proved to be dovish. The word patient was removed but other synonyms were substituted.
Sentiment Analysis:- Was bearish until the FOMC statement. With a probable rate hike off the table anywhere near June, the sentiment is mildly bullish because in the long run until the rate hike goes on and there isn’t much improvement in the German economy, EURO will continue to fall.
Bearish till 1.0235, 1.0000, and finally to 0.98 by the end of the year.
The upside is considered to be capped by 1.1535 (High of Last month) but a price above 1.1160 might turn the sentiment bullish to a price in the vicinity of 1.1750.
Recap Of February
Recap Of February
Opening Price: - 1.1310 on 2nd February
High of the Month: - 1.1535 on 3rd February
Low of the Month: - 1.1159 on 27th February
Close of the Month:-1.1159 on 27th February
Fundamental Analysis:-
1. Strong NFP data.
2. EU- Greece Talks.
3. German Employment drops and strong US CPI date sent the Euro down towards the end of the month.
Sentiment Analysis: - Same old bearish till 1.0800, 1.0700 and finally 1.0500.
The upside was considered to be capped by 1.1975 (High of Last month) never breached.
Opening Price: - 1.1310 on 2nd February
High of the Month: - 1.1535 on 3rd February
Low of the Month: - 1.1159 on 27th February
Close of the Month:-1.1159 on 27th February
Fundamental Analysis:-
1. Strong NFP data.
2. EU- Greece Talks.
3. German Employment drops and strong US CPI date sent the Euro down towards the end of the month.
Sentiment Analysis: - Same old bearish till 1.0800, 1.0700 and finally 1.0500.
The upside was considered to be capped by 1.1975 (High of Last month) never breached.
Recap Of January
Recap of January
Opening Price: - 1.1945 on 2nd January
High of the Month: - 1.1975 on 2nd January
Low of the Month: - 1.1095 on 23rd January
Close of the Month: - 1.1297 on 30th January
Fundamental Analysis:-
1. Mario Draghi strengthens QE bets on January 2nd.
2. Greexit Talks.
3. Eurozone CPI declines
4. NFP – Consensus on US Job growth was met, but big earnings was a disappointment which sent the pair higher for the time being.
5. SNB floor was removed abruptly which sent the market crashing.
6. ECB announced a$1.2 Trillion QE programme.
7. FOMC on 29th January was a bit of a disappointment. The US Federal Reserve maintained the “patient” rhetoric when referring to hiking rates, and presented a more hawkish statement, citing evidence that the economy is strengthening especially when it comes to job market. In regards of inflation, the FOMC expects it to decline further in the near time, but considers that it will be something temporal."
Sentiment Analysis:- Due to the divergent monetary policy everyone was bearish on the pair to a possible downside to 1.1000, 1.850, 1.750 and finally 1.500.The
Upside was considered to be capped at 1.2570 (high of last month) which was never breached.
Opening Price: - 1.1945 on 2nd January
High of the Month: - 1.1975 on 2nd January
Low of the Month: - 1.1095 on 23rd January
Close of the Month: - 1.1297 on 30th January
Fundamental Analysis:-
1. Mario Draghi strengthens QE bets on January 2nd.
2. Greexit Talks.
3. Eurozone CPI declines
4. NFP – Consensus on US Job growth was met, but big earnings was a disappointment which sent the pair higher for the time being.
5. SNB floor was removed abruptly which sent the market crashing.
6. ECB announced a$1.2 Trillion QE programme.
7. FOMC on 29th January was a bit of a disappointment. The US Federal Reserve maintained the “patient” rhetoric when referring to hiking rates, and presented a more hawkish statement, citing evidence that the economy is strengthening especially when it comes to job market. In regards of inflation, the FOMC expects it to decline further in the near time, but considers that it will be something temporal."
Sentiment Analysis:- Due to the divergent monetary policy everyone was bearish on the pair to a possible downside to 1.1000, 1.850, 1.750 and finally 1.500.The
Upside was considered to be capped at 1.2570 (high of last month) which was never breached.
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